October 9th, 2006


And the winner is ....

mmcirvin, who guessed 5,271,009. The actual mean of all the guesses was approximately 168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,350,168,355,203.093093. There were 33 guesses. Matt, if you email me your mailing address, I'll mail you my five dollars.

If we had been using the median, the correct answer would have been 44, and the winner would have been either katrinkles or plant_geek, both of whom guessed 44.

Nobody guessed a negative number. Also, nobody guessed a transcendental number (like pi or e or 1.01001000100001...). Two people expressed their entries as fractions (thirty-three and one third and seven and a half); these were also the only entries written out. Four people picked decimals (7.5, 7.6, 50.1, and 83.76). With those exceptions, everyone else picked a positive integer.

The smallest guess was 0, while the largest was 5,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555,555. (I almost disqualified that latter guess, as it came close to violating my request regarding not submitting entries that make me do complicated calculations, but dividing it by 33 wasn't that bad. If I had disqualified it then annarama would have won with her guess of 1999.)

The most common number picked was 7, which was picked by three people. The closest non-identical guesses were 7.5 and 7.6.

The smallest ten entries were in the range 0-16; the next ten were in the range 27-72; the next ten were 73-1508; and the top three were 1999, 5271009, and the big honkin' list of fives.

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